Space, security, and satellites — the final frontier is getting competitive.

S1E21 | Highlights and impact of this week's top tech themes.

Hi, Friends —

✰ Welcome to [our digital disco]! Today we’re diving into recent highlights in space exploration, geopolitics, and technology — and why this matters to you. You can also check out last week’s newsletter here.

Over 80 nations now engage in space activities, with the USA, China, and Russia at the forefront. Private innovators such as Elon Musk's SpaceX have disrupted traditional cost structures, making space exploration more economically viable. The result has been a surge in private sector investment, which has grown from ~$1 billion a decade ago to an impressive $5-6 billion today in the United States alone.

This evolving landscape reflects a shift in national goals, driven by a mix of prestige, commercial interests, and strategic considerations. Lunar exploration and potential resource extraction, such as rare metals and helium-3, stand as prime objectives. Yet the lack of universally accepted regulations presents a notable challenge. Moreover, access to space has been disrupted for various nations and companies due to Russia's invasion into Ukraine. European Space Agency (ESA) missions were canceled due to sanctions, and the joint ESA-Russia ExoMars mission delayed to 2028. Despite the holdbacks, Russia launched a lunar craft last week, resurfacing concerns about security and international space law. The launch also happened in the same week as Virgin Galactic’s first space tourism journey (20 years in the making). Oh, and the Pentagon is sending hundreds of satellites into the Earth’s orbit.

It’s a big month for space news. Let’s dive in. 

☞ Russia’s aiming for the moon.

Russia launched an unmanned craft late last week, a mission which may lead to the country's first successful moon landing in nearly 50 years. The mission, Luna-25, seeks to collect geological samples to better understand the lunar environment and search of signs of water (which would hold significant implications for the potential of settlement in space). The launch came shortly after India's Chandrayaan-3 space probe entered the moon's orbit.

• Why does it matter? This mission holds strategic importance for Russia; its success would showcase technological prowess and resilience against Western sanctions, economic difficulties, and its ongoing conflict with Ukraine. The launch also symbolizes Russia's growing independence in space exploration, highlighting its determination to continue space activities despite severed ties with the West. A new space race could arise, with countries like the US and China vying to launch their own lunar missions. And if lunar water is confirmed, it could serve as a resource for fuel, oxygen, and drinking water, reshaping the trajectory of lunar exploration and positioning Russia at the forefront of the competition.

• Pros: The Luna-25 mission highlights the need for stronger space governance. The space exploration landscape has transformed over the past few decades, marked by the transition from the Cold War era to a new era of competition among nations and private stakeholders alike. While attention has focused on the geopolitical and economic importance of space, however, the crucial aspect of space governance has been largely overlooked. Multilateral agreements and treaties are proving ineffective, hindered by the international political climate — leading to gaps in addressing celestial resource use, space militarization, and new technological developments.

• Cons: Russia’s mission poses a multitude of threats to geopolitical security and stability. For one, the advancements made in space exploration, including lunar landings, often involve technologies that have dual-use applications. These technologies can be used for both peaceful and military purposes (think precision navigation, remote sensing, and propulsion systems, repurposed for weapons or missile defense systems), and may escalate tensions between countries — posing risks to global security. Moreover, the capability to conduct lunar landings and space exploration can enhance a country's strategic and military positioning. Lunar landings, for instance, can provide a country with the ability to establish infrastructure for potential future space-based operations. This could involve the deployment of surveillance or communication systems, which could potentially be used for intelligence gathering or military communications. Such capabilities can have implications for regional security dynamics and potentially lead to competition among nations striving to achieve similar strategic advantages.

☞ Make room, Blue Origin and SpaceX.

• Why does it matter? The successful launch represents a significant step in the commercialization of space travel, demonstrating the potential for private individuals to experience spaceflight. The mission's success could further stimulate the emerging space tourism industry and encourage other companies to develop similar services. However, this development also highlights concerns related to cost, equity, and environmental impact. The increasing ticket prices for space tourism, as evidenced by the rise from $200,000 to $450,000 since the program's inception, accentuate the exclusivity of such experiences.

• Pros: As private space travel becomes increasingly accessible, its economic impact becomes more evident. The emergence of these services is creating revenue streams, stimulating economic growth, and expanding research and exploration horizons. The space tourism sector is currently valued at $1.1 billion, with projections indicating that it could double over the next decade. This expansion is attributed to increasing demand for space-related services, including astronaut training, space exploration, and even the prospect of space hotels.

• Cons: The environmental impact of frequent rocket launches needs to be carefully managed. Reusable spaceplanes like VSS Unity contribute to reducing launch-related emissions, but the overall growth in space tourism could lead to increased pollution and carbon emissions. The rise of commercial spaceflight is also likely to exacerbate the problem of space debris, increasing the risk of collisions and the generation of space debris fragments. Finally, the ethical considerations of space tourism come into play when juxtaposed with global challenges like climate change, inequality, and poverty. Critics argue that investing vast resources into space tourism could divert attention and resources away from addressing these pressing issues on Earth.

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☞ The Pentagon is spurring space innovation.

The U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) is disrupting traditional Pentagon procurement practices with its plan to build a constellation of low-Earth orbit satellites. To date, York, SpaceX, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, L3Harris, Raytheon, and Ball Aerospace are involved. The first sendoff of satellites, Tranche 0, allows military users to experiment with the technology and is scheduled to complete this month. Tranche 1 satellites are scheduled for launch in 2024 and 2025.

What sets this project apart from other Pentagon contracts?

• By relying on a variety of suppliers, the agency can incrementally add new technologies and launching satellite groups every two years — a timeline which contrasts with the traditional, decade-long deployment. (This is a huge win for Silicon Valley, as startups pressure the Pentagon to open up its defense budget.) The hope is to embrace technological advancement over time, thus avoiding tech that becomes outdated the moment it’s deployed.

• This endeavor is the U.S. govt’s first proliferated LEO constellation — a network of satellites that are positioned in low-Earth orbit, typically at altitudes ranging from ~160 to ~2,000 km above the Earth's surface. LEO constellations were once considered a pipe dream due to the immense technical and cost constraints; they have since gained significant attention due to advancements in satellite technology and the achievements of commercial leaders (e.g., Starlink by SpaceX).

• The SDA has set aggressive pricing goals. These are most likely to be met if the SDA proves successful in both increasing supply and competition in the satellite industry (vis-a-vis iterative procurement contracts). This approach could also lead to enhanced capabilities in the space industry, potentially benefiting the government, other space-related industries, and consumers by making satellite technology more accessible and affordable.

• Given that it’s leveraging numerous vendors over time (compared to the 1-2 avg for military contracts), the SDA requires that all its satellites are interoperable. If successful, satellites across massive defense contractors (e.g., Lockheed) and up-and-coming startups will communicate as one, collaborative network. This may have massive implications by spurring and incentivizing competition in the space industry across gov’t and commercial sectors.

• As satellites become vital to communication, navigation, and military strategy, they emerge as the focal point of tension, further underlining the requirement for a comprehensive framework that ensures equitable access and prevents catastrophic consequences. If successful, this collaborative network could revolutionize the way satellites communicate, as well as how government agencies procure emerging technologies going forward.

✿ As always — any and all feedback is welcome! In the meantime, give someone a hug and say an ‘I love you’ this week. Make the world a little happier.